Gambling Theories of Probability

Gambling Theories of Probability have been studied and promulgated by many brilliant academics. The most notable of the more recent ones was Edward Thorpe, the MIT Professor whose 1960s blackjack thesis"Beat the Dealer" gave blackjack players an edge over the casino.

My greatest win came from a single one dollar lottery ticket purchase, yet on another occasion after studying lottery results and identifying a pattern for a prolonged period, a purchase of 300 consecutive tickets returned zero.

The worst result over the preceding six month period for such a purchase returned half the money outlaid in small prizes alone.

John Nash, a Princeton University Lecturer spent much of his life studying game theory.

The Australian Branch of Mensa has a group that works at creating theories for intelligent bets.

Blaise Pascal formulated the Theory of Probability using dice. His theory (and it is correct) is that when two dice are rolled, the number 7 has the greatest chance of being rolled. Where does this fit in your craps playing strategy?

Even Albert Einstein dabbled with the maths of probability. If you are keen to learn more about the maths behind probability you can download all you need to know to start working on it from http://www.saliu.com/theory-of-probability.html which is one of about 12 million sites dealing with the subject.

With the exception of blackjack, which is hard but enjoyable work and harness racing, I have never been able to to be a regular winnner on the occasions that I have played.

Back in the days before desk top computers, one of my grandmothers used to spend thousands of dollars each week on a crossword puzzle type gambling game that paid very large prizes (in its era) for winners. Each week she would have my mother and all my aunties working helping fill in her entries using mathematical permutations of the possible answers. The week she won, the prize pool was diluted by four other winners. The next time she won, it was even more diluted.

For years on Friday nights we used to go to the “trots” (Harness racing) - fields were fairly small. A friend came up with the theory that taking the on course favorite with the field on the totalisator on average returned enough for a pleasant night out and an extra days wages for the week. We tried it and it worked on the vast majority of Friday nights for years. For all I know, it may still work in many places where the fields are still small.

These days we gamble for entertainment purposes. We regularly win small amounts in the region of a few hundred dollars with intermittent larger amounts along the way. Like many others who earn a nice supplemental income from gambling, we adhere strictly to our money management strategy. This way our “entertainment” is self funding and profitable providing funds for luxuries that most of us would have to think twice about.

Most of the big winners we know have all been ordinary working people with ordinary maths skills who treat their flutter as entertainment and hope that one day Lady Luck will truly smile on them.

Whilst you are waiting for the big one, working on the maths may disclose some relevant theory that the rest of us have overlooked! There are many of us who can do the maths and crunch numbers. It is the ability to be the first to see the opportunity and apply it in a unique way that sets a few apart from the many.

If you are one of that fortunate few, Lady Luck will anoint you for awhile!